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Newest TVWW Contest: Guess the Opening-Weekend Grosses for Two More TV-Inspired Movies
May 20, 2010  | By David Bianculli
 
macgruber-explode-May-21.jpg

It's been a while since we mounted a TV WORTH WATCHING contest for readers, offering tacky prizes for a predictive puzzler. So here's a new one, and it's a two-parter: Guess the opening-weekend grosses for two movies based on TV fare -- MacGruber and Sex and the City 2 -- and, by so doing, predict which one will outdraw the other...

SEX-AND-THE-CITY-II-10-My27.jpg

The rules are the same as for previous contests. You can enter only once. In the event two predictions are identical, the one received earliest will count, and others can resubmit an altered estimate until the contest deadline.

The winners are determined in tried and true Price Is Right fashion: The person who gets closest to the actual revised box-office tallies, without going over, is the winner. And, of course, the winners must be ranked correctly in the final order for their respective weekends. If MacGruber out-earns Sex 2, your prediction must reflect that.

A sample contest entry, for example, might read: 1) Sex & the City 2, $62 million; 2) MacGruber, $19 million.

Deadline for entries is noon ET Friday, May 21, giving readers a full day to hone their predictions.

Among the key factors:

macgruber-My-21.jpg

MacGruber, which premieres Friday, May 21, will be up against, among other films, the premiere of Shrek Forever After, the fourth film in the nine-year, $1-billion movie franchise (and those are U.S. figures; worldwide, it doubles).

MacGruber is based on series of Saturday Night Live sketches in which Will Forte plays a MacGyver-type inventor whose neuroses and distractions result in his constantly being blown up while trying to invent a way to defuse an explosive device.

SEX-AND-THE-CITY-II-carrier.jpg

Sex and the City 2 will premiere on Thursday, May 27, giving it a four-day Memorial Day Weekend box-office total.

As the original Sex and the City movie approached theaters in 2008, I guessed $55 million for the opening weekend -- its actual opening-week tally.

Winners will be announced after the revised figures for Sex 2 are in, post-Memorial Day weekend. Ad to entice readers (but only a little), here are the prizes from which the winner can select, taken straight from my still-uncleaned office floor:

1) a Ghost Hunters plug-in night light

2) an Alice deck of giant playing cards, keyed to the recent Syfy miniseries reimagining of Alice in Wonderland

3) an Ultimate Fighting Championship small-scale UFC fingerless leather glove trinket

4) a bright red NBC News mini-note pad and matching attached mini-pen.

SEX-AND-THE-CITY-II-1carrie.jpg

Winners will be announced, then contacted, and can select their prizes.

Guess away. Quickly, but only once. And please, if you like, add a sentence defending your guesses. If you think MacGruber will be a sleeper hit, for example, or that moviegoers will be tired of Sex, explain why.

Remember... the deadline is noon ET Friday, May 21. Have fun!

 

17 Comments

 

Ken Rehfield said:

1) Sex & the City 2, $43 million; 2) MacGruber, $16 million.

Already tired of seeing the lame MacGruber sketch on SNL all the time, much less a feature length film. Couldn't care less about S&TC and I'll bet others feel the same.

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 8:46 AM


Gregg B said:

1) Sex & the City 2, $54 million; 2) MacGruber, $14 million

My daughter is still very interested in Sex and the City and it is probably review-proof. Also there are a ton of tie-ins.

MacGruber won't be able to put together an audience even with a paper clip, chewing gum and a nail file. He will explode under the weight of Shrek.

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 9:43 AM


Chris Collins said:

Sex in the City: 60.5 million
MacGruber: 20.2 million

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 10:00 AM


eileen said:

I'll give SATC-2 a $63 million since it's a holiday weekend, and two years from the original release so ticket prices have gone up yet again. (The trailers are enough to make me swear off film forever.)

I know nothing about MacGruber, but it looks like a teenage boy's dream come true. Going on that premise, although it's opening on a non-holiday weekend, I'm giving it a $28 million.

So, Sex beats Mac...

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 11:24 AM


Paul said:

1. Sex and the City 2, $73 million
2. Macgruber, $41 million

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 12:39 PM


len f. said:

at least you're not offering an Algonquin Snowdome!!

[Still have it -- the Black Cat one. And a NY skyline one with the Twin Towers still in there. But YOU have the best snow globe of all... St. Eligius! -- David B.]

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 12:43 PM


Kate G said:

Sex and the City $43 million and Maguber $16 million.

I don't think SATC 2 will be as good as the last and I am just not that into them anymore. It is supposed to be a fairly nice weekend here in the Northeast and I don't think a tired SNL idea will translate into a big box office.

Thanks for the contest!

[Kate: Someone posting before you has predicted the exact same amounts for both movies. Please tweak at least one of yours slightly higher or lower, and it'll count. -- David B.]

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 3:04 PM


Phillip R. Crabb said:

Hello Dave,

The Ghost Hunters plug-in night-light is a most worthy prize and pulled me in...

1) Sex and the City - 63.1 million
2) MacGruber - 16.3

I've been the bridesmaid in at least one of these contests, so have my fingers crossed....

Phil
Franklin, NJ

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 5:33 PM


Rich said:

This is really easy for me. Two movies that I just stop in utter exasperation and say "WHY?". I can understand "Sex/City" #1 as with popular Anime series there are often OVA's released on DVD (or in theaters) for the die-hard fans to snatch up. Was the world 'Really' clamoring for a sequel with these women?

"MacGruber"? - wow SNL's been on this long and this is what they choose to follow "It's Pat", "Stuart Smally", "Hot Rod" and "Ladies Man" with...I don't think they made back the Craft Services budgets on those releases. It's always creepy when a "Straight to DVD" wonders into the cinema - I actually want to watch the faces of these film goers as they leave and ponder their horror.

So, in Price is Right fashion I will bid: "Sex In the City" $2 and "McGruber" $1

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 7:08 PM


Kate G said:

Thanks for catching that Dave. Sex and the City $44 million and Magruber $17 million.

Comment posted on May 20, 2010 11:40 PM


Perry said:

I'll give it a shot

Sex in the City 55.5m
MacGruber 11.1m

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 12:32 AM


Danny said:

1) Sex & the City 2, $69 million; 2) MacGruber, $31 million.

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 12:32 AM


Neil said:

After the bloated first edition of SATC and the even more over-the-top ad campaign for the new one, my gut says the core audience has aged into rationality and won't be lining up with their bucks in hand until and unless the reviews declare it a must-see. I don't foresee that happening, so I'm betting $29 Mil for opening weekend.

MacGruber will get enough teen boys in its opening weekend, but will then quickly fizzle once word of mouth and reviews take the air out of this turkey. (And always remember the immortal words of The Big Guy: "As God is my witness, I really thought turkeys could fly!"). -> $33 Mil.

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 4:20 AM


Eileen said:

This just in from NYC...

AMC Kips Bay is actually selling tickets to Shrek Forever After for $20 each!!!

Welcome, my friends, to the wonderful world of the summer blockbuster.

Gordon Gekko was wrong -- greed is not good, especially for the parents who have a couple of kids howling to see Shrek at $20 a pop.

Haven't seen a movie coming out of Hollywood that's worth that admission price.

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 8:34 AM


Ryan Ditmars said:

Sex and the city 2 45 million
MacGruber 17.1 million

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 10:43 AM


R.Orr said:

Dave-
My bet - most people will be seeing Shrek this weekend, but Sex in the City will get a big audience (53.4 million) perhaps. Macgruber will be low (27.3 million). So that's my guess...

Personally this weekend is devoted to Lost.

Comment posted on May 21, 2010 12:29 PM


Rich said:

If I am correct the point of the contest is to bid a number - WITHOUT GOING OVER The "official" B.O. weekend gross. 2 things are very clear to me:

1. Many of you are still swayed by marketing hype and think SNL is still relevant.

2. I smells me a "Ghost Hunters" night-light!- Ha! For the Love of Haruhi someone cancel that stinkin' Saturday Night Atrocity!

Comment posted on May 25, 2010 7:26 PM
 
 
 
 
 
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