Talk Show History Is Written Tonight, In a New Game of Late-Night Chess

Jimmy Fallon succeeds Conan O'Brien as host of NBC's Late Night tonight (12:35 a.m. ET). It's a battle that won't be won or lost overnight, or in a week or month -- but the battle is waged regardless. And like the opening moves of a chess game, what starts simply soon will lead to tiny, subtle, significant variations...

In the head-to-head battle between Late Night with Jimmy Fallon on NBC and The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson on CBS (also at 12:35 a.m.), Fallon should win the initial fight for A-list guests. With Lorne Michaels as executive producer, and so much at stake, decades of favors can be cashed in.

But there are other considerations at play here, as each side advances its first pawns in this game. Booking the guest, or landing the "get," is only half the game in this game. The other half is what you do with the guest after you land them.

Tonight, for example, the addition of Justin Timberlake to Fallon's opening-night show is a shrewd move. When Timberlake was guest host on Saturday Night Live, and appearing as quiet Robin Gibb opposite Fallon's easily angered Barry on the recurring "The Barry Gibb Talk Show" sketch, the results were hilarious. If their chemistry as themselves is a fraction as entertaining, Fallon will get off on the right foot.

But in aiming primarily for the frat-boy audience, the Late Night under Fallon may not be able to take full advantage of many of Michaels' closest assets. Will the average Fallon fan care about, say, Paul Simon or Randy Newman? The real measure of this new Late Night, in the months to come, will be centered on how Fallon relates to his guests, and vice versa.

And that's where Craig Ferguson has an advantage. He may have to work harder to land certain guests, but he always always connects with him once they show up. Paris Hilton, in her first appearance on the show, started out wary and hesitant, but within minutes was laughing, relaxing, and actually, honestly conversing.

It's no wonder she agreed not only to be Ferguson's countermove for Fallon's opening night, but to appear in a series of prime-time comedy promos sprinkled within Monday's CBS sitcoms.

Viewers of each show are likely to be pleased by what they see tonight -- but who will be watching whom?

And, in these Internet-obsessed days of TV afterlife, whose clips will be distributed more enthusiastically tomorrow and the day after?

Tomorrow night, with Tina Fey, should belong to Fallon. Wednesday, with Archbishop Desmond Tutu, should go to Ferguson -- certainly in days-after buzz, if not network viewership. Tutu's booking is a statement in itself, and should please old Late Late Show fans while drawing new curious ones, and generating many next-day stories and blogs.

And so it will go for a while: pawn takes pawn, while the big pieces jockey for position, look for weakness and plan their respective attacks.

For now, my advice is to slip back and forth and sample both. Late-night TV is one of those glorious dayparts where television has real, significant history. These host shifts are like comets: They don't come around very often.

NBC's Tonight Show has had four permanent hosts in more than half a century of operation -- Steve Allen, Jack Paar, Johnny Carson and Jay Leno -- and is about to get a fifth.

Late Night, in more than 25 years, has had two -- David Letterman and Conan O'Brien -- and tonight will get a third.

The Late Late Show, in more than a dozen years, has had three -- Tom Snyder, Craig Kilborn and Craig Ferguson. And Late Show with David Letterman on CBS and Jimmy Kimmel Live on ABC, since they launched, have had one host each.

It's a game board where the players don't move or change all that often. But tonight, there's a new game afoot, and the first move in what will be a fascinating year for talk-show hosts, producers, critics and viewers.

In chess notation, mark tonight's first moves as: d3 e5.

And the game, as they say, is afoot. Stay tuned...